Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2e0…902e crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$59
other 7% +$10
sports 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 33% -5.3%
≤90d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 33% -5.3%
all 18 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 33% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 33% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 17% -14.3%
15% -37.5% 11% -22.6%
20% -43.6% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $177 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$31 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $157 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $121 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$31 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$27 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $96 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$23 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$8 -34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 11 $41 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records