Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2de…9ce4 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$107 (-21%) realized −$90 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%6W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$164
sports 9% +$40
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -34.1% -40.4% 22% 22% -39.3%
≤30d 27 -34.1% -40.4% 22% 22% -39.3%
≤90d 27 -34.1% -40.4% 22% 22% -39.3%
all 27 -34.1% -40.4% 22% 22% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 22% -39.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 22% -45.1%
15% -51.3% 19% -50.4%
20% -56.1% 19% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses6 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)27 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 25¢ 40¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+63%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $15 −$7 -48%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$2 -37%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$6 -60%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $16 +$9 +57%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $14 −$13 -93%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$9 -87%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$10 -68%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $20 +$5 +26%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $10 +$12 +118%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $10 +$14 +139%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$24 -79%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $10 +$28 +276%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $5 26m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 39m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 39m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $5 41m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 43m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 48m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 56m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.35 · official $121.35 (match) · 71 history records