Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb2dc…b433
world · 177 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$2,726 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,260 · open +$455
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,155
Realized+$2,260
Unrealized+$455
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses82 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions37
Markets (closed)136 / 177
History coverage83d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 37 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$235
14 days−$56
30 days+$2,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Yes 43¢ 85¢ $304 $605 +$301 (+99%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 77¢ 94¢ $388 $472 +$84 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 48¢ $280 $245 −$35 (-12%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? No 76¢ 92¢ $182 $220 +$38 (+21%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 51¢ 78¢ $92 $140 +$48 (+52%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 57¢ 69¢ $81 $98 +$17 (+21%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $60 $74 +$14 (+23%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 38¢ 46¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 85¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 81¢ 78¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 56¢ 76¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 69¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $117 −$10 -8%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 −$19 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -97%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $116 +$43 +37%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$13 +25%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 08 $61 −$37 -60%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $91 +$53 +59%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $94 −$43 -45%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -89%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $76 +$30 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $45 +$14 +32%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $27 +$11 +41%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 03 $62 −$2 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $10 +$8 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $160 +$76 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $165 +$127 +77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $20 +$5 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $45 +$32 +70%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $350 +$76 +22%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $47 +$39 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$2,794
other 28% −$118
politics 16% +$449
crypto 2% −$81
weather 1% −$167
tech 1% −$93
sports 1% −$3
finance 0% −$15
economics 0% −$50
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $107 49m
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $107 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $40 52m
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 52m
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $27 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 91¢ $27 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $11 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $18 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 96¢ $29 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 22h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $62 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $22 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 68¢ $20 23h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $20 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $35 24h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $20 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $20 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $7 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 13¢ $12 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY 5¢ $5 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 10¢ $10 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -42.8% -48.2% 32% 28% -31.3%
≤30d 100 -8.6% -17.3% 56% 41% +26.2%
≤90d 136 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 38% +13.8%
all 136 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 38% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% +13.8%
10% -24.2% 27% +2.9%
15% -31.5% 18% -7.0%
20% -38.3% 10% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,154.54 · official $3,167.53 (match) · 544 history records