Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb2db…140a
other · 238 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$648
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses83 / 87
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions68
Markets (closed)170 / 238
History coverage46d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 68 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$433
7 days−$394
14 days−$312
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+5%)
Will USD fall to 16,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+14%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 68¢ 80¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+18%)
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+38%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 48¢ 88¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+82%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 43¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 44¢ $12 $18 +$5 (+44%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 64¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 38¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 88¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 13 $37 +$6 +16%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +122%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.5%? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.5% and 2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? Jun 13 $0 $0 +66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? Jun 13 $11 −$8 -74%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in April? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.1%? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Jun 13 $14 −$4 -26%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by less than Jun 13 $29 −$14 -49%
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate af Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 13 $7 −$4 -51%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 55.0 in May? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -80%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.8%? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.1% and 1.4%? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$71
economics 15% +$69
world 12% −$75
politics 12% −$67
tech 9% −$52
sports 5% +$5
finance 2% +$28
weather 2% +$6
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 5¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 5¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $2 1h
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $7 1h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 4h
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 11h
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $1 12h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $5 16h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $2 17h
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $11 17h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $14 17h
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $20 18h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 18h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $11 22h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $15 22h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 23h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $1 24h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $1 34h
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $10 35h
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 35h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -62.7% -66.3% 17% 15% -60.5%
≤30d 149 -18.6% -26.3% 46% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 170 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 32% -10.5%
all 170 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 32% -10.5%
10% -30.4% 24% -19.1%
15% -37.1% 19% -26.9%
20% -43.3% 13% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.51 · official $647.31 (match) · 689 history records