Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2d9…8bde other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 21% −$20
politics 9% −$3
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
world 5% −$4
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage137d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $640 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $217 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $255 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $644 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $454 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $837 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $587 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 16h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $41 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 19h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 21h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 22h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 23h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 27h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 32h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 34h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $67 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $67 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 43h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 47h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1414 history records