Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2d7…776c crypto 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%188W / 16L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 204 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×33.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6248.38 per $1 lost it wins $6248.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses188 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage184d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $363 $363 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 26? Jun 26 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 25? Jun 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 24? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? Jun 23 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 22? Jun 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 20? Jun 20 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? Jun 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 19? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 17? Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 16? Jun 16 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $358 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $358 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $355 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $355 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? Jun 04 $355 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $354 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $343 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 28 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 27? May 27 $342 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $342 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22? May 22 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? May 09 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $350 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $350 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $348 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 16 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $347 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $363 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $75 24h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $265 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $128 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $204 6d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $68 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 9d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $110 13d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $203 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $358 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $358 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $357 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $59 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $198 18d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $356 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $356 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $355 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $355 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.82 · official $362.82 (match) · 479 history records