Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2d6…f3bd other 325 markets active 76d ago coverage 508d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 507d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$69,122 (+21%) realized +$69,122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%176W / 149L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 508d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$22,664
culture 27% −$1,071
politics 18% +$3,706
crypto 7% +$2,236
tech 5% −$2,060
sports 2% −$81
world 1% +$116
weather 0% +$134
economics 0% +$83
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 25 -16.4% -24.3% 28% 20% -72.6%
all 325 +32.4% +19.8% 54% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 33% -20.0%
10% +8.3% 22% -27.7%
15% -2.1% 17% -34.6%
20% -11.7% 13% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$960) neutral
Persistence
early +34% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$755 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses176 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)325 / 325
History coverage508d ⚠
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 325 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $624 −$57 -9%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Apr 14 $32 −$21 -65%
Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks? Apr 14 $19 −$2 -13%
Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks? Apr 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $2,440 −$2,021 -83%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $1,926 −$1,249 -65%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $3,108 −$2,667 -86%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $148 −$37 -25%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $1,749 −$1,407 -80%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Apr 12 $1,334 +$10 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Apr 12 $84 −$63 -75%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Apr 12 $24 −$11 -44%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Apr 12 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $128 −$94 -74%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 12 $432 −$65 -15%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $555 −$452 -81%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Apr 12 $200 −$152 -76%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Apr 12 $41 +$30 +72%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Apr 12 $72 +$27 +37%
Brex IPO before 2027? Apr 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $1,582 −$1,334 -84%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $4,257 −$4,168 -98%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $2,823 −$1,730 -61%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $23 +$31 +138%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $29 +$115 +401%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $1,080 −$659 -61%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Ye say something antisemitic before March? Mar 15 $7 +$2 +37%
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m? Mar 15 $73 +$27 +37%
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? Feb 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? Feb 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m? Feb 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? Feb 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Greenland 2: Migration make 25 million or more domestically by Ja Feb 04 $16 +$4 +25%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (Feb Feb 04 $94 +$6 +6%
xAI IPO before 2027? Feb 04 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Feb 02 $33 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Feb 02 $29 −$9 -31%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jan 29 $178 −$178 -100%
Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3) Jan 28 $237 −$237 -100%
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m? Jan 27 $19 +$11 +56%
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? Jan 12 $754 +$133 +18%
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Gl Jan 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? Jan 10 $764 +$236 +31%
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? Jan 10 $656 +$434 +66%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 10 $1,249 +$10 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 02 $616 +$83 +14%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 02 $937 −$869 -93%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Nov 25 $200 −$56 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 75d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 75d
Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks? SELL No 56¢ $12 75d
Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks? SELL No 38¢ $3 75d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 75d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 75d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 75d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 75d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 75d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 75d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 75d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 76d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 77d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 77d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 77d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 77d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 77d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 77d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 77d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 77d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL No 4¢ $16 77d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on SELL Yes 7¢ $7 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records