Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2d5…d9c9 crypto 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,650 (+4%) realized +$2,242 · open +$1,408
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%205W / 35L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,179
7 days+$3,179
14 days+$3,502
30 days+$3,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$929
sports 26% +$3,991
other 0% +$13
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.0% -3.1% 100% 19% -2.0%
≤30d 181 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 13% -5.6%
≤90d 181 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 13% -5.6%
all 240 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 15% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 15% -5.8%
10% -17.4% 8% -14.9%
15% -25.4% 5% -23.1%
20% -32.7% 4% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$71 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$4,408
Realized+$2,242
Unrealized+$1,408
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses205 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage370d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 72¢ $3,000 $4,408 +$1,408 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $871 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $720 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $329 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $752 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $999 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $468 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $3,891 +$74 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $3,886 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $3,840 +$37 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $115 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $3,759 +$41 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,013 +$516 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,857 +$411 +14%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,300 +$536 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,318 +$1,001 +76%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $946 +$374 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $991 +$9 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $945 +$35 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $814 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $991 +$9 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $468 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $863 +$8 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $441 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $990 +$10 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $137 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $991 +$9 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $987 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $980 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $630 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $218 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,046 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $991 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $991 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $927 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $871 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $990 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $720 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $990 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $356 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $999 12h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 12h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $328 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $990 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $981 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $62 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,408.16 · official $4,408.16 (match) · 1019 history records