Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2d4…22ac weather 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-49%) realized −$74 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$65
weather 38% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -71.8% -74.5% 0% 0% -72.7%
≤30d 5 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -74.3%
≤90d 5 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -74.3%
all 5 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.7% 0% -74.3%
10% -86.1% 0% -76.7%
15% -87.5% 0% -79.0%
20% -88.7% 0% -81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage19d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $36 −$6 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 −$62 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.01 · official $30.01 (match) · 16 history records