Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2d4…ae8b crypto 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,336 (+8%) realized +$1,337 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%161W / 91L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$199
14 days+$347
30 days+$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$51
sports 20% +$1,189
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -7.9% -16.6% 60% 52% -4.0%
≤30d 252 -1.8% -11.1% 64% 52% -3.2%
≤90d 252 -1.8% -11.1% 64% 52% -3.2%
all 252 -1.8% -11.1% 64% 52% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 52% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -12.5%
15% -27.4% 39% -20.9%
20% -34.5% 31% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1,337
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses161 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage18d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Up 61¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$25 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$32 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$28 +136%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $60 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $92 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$23 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$21 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $89 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.69 · official $8.69 (match) · 813 history records