Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2d1…8d9d other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-15%) realized −$240 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$37
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$132
other 35% −$51
sports 11% +$40
crypto 6% −$14
politics 2% +$14
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -29.8% -36.4% 27% 27% -58.7%
≤90d 56 -45.2% -50.4% 32% 27% -44.0%
all 76 -24.1% -31.3% 45% 36% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 36% -25.1%
10% -37.9% 29% -32.2%
15% -43.9% 26% -38.8%
20% -49.4% 13% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage162d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Yes 0¢ 100¢ $0 $41 +$41 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+25%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 30¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 28 $13 −$6 -49%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $2 +$7 +355%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $90 −$28 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $48 +$21 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? May 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Apr 29 $4 $0 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $40 +$27 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $15 +$7 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 29h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 25d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 25d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.77 · official $72.93 (match) · 198 history records