Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb2ce…7d54 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$282 (+30%) realized +$152 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$151
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.2% +20.5% 75% 75% +27.2%
≤30d 4 +33.2% +20.5% 75% 75% +27.2%
≤90d 4 +33.2% +20.5% 75% 75% +27.2%
all 4 +33.2% +20.5% 75% 75% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 75% +27.2%
10% +9.0% 75% +15.0%
15% -1.5% 75% +3.9%
20% -11.2% 75% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$42 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.61 per $1 lost it wins $4.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage18d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $200 $299 +$100 (+50%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 63¢ $88 $118 +$30 (+34%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$42 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 +$73 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $89 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.08 · official $677.08 (match) · 31 history records