Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb2cd…c187 finance 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47,243 (+9%) realized +$41,361 · open +$5,882
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$6,802per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$38,832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$555
7 days+$830
14 days+$344
30 days+$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$20,756
finance 23% +$24,453
other 4% +$93
tech 0% +$8
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.4% +7.1% 83% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 69% 38% -7.1%
≤90d 36 +4.4% -5.5% 75% 39% +6.5%
all 61 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 30% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 30% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 16% -11.2%
15% -23.3% 7% -19.8%
20% -30.8% 3% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$3,808) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$838 vs −$137 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.01 per $1 lost it wins $25.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$38,832
Realized+$41,361
Unrealized+$5,882
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)61 / 77
History coverage521d
Avg bet$6,802
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $10,974 $11,754 +$780 (+7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 19¢ $1,918 $4,847 +$2,929 (+153%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $3,363 $4,028 +$665 (+20%)
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $3,806 $3,851 +$45 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 74¢ $3,593 $3,831 +$238 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 74¢ 99¢ $2,175 $2,903 +$728 (+33%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 83¢ 83¢ $1,875 $1,872 −$3 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,701 $1,767 +$66 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,523 $1,540 +$17 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 70¢ $1,154 $1,410 +$256 (+22%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $451 $477 +$26 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 67¢ 99¢ $321 $476 +$155 (+48%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 42¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $33 +$5 (+20%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 63¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,124 +$87 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,682 +$465 +28%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 22 $1,210 +$4 +0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 22 $1,001 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $353 +$106 +30%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $380 +$169 +44%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11,520 −$486 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $590 −$193 -33%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 08 $2,444 +$57 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,675 +$112 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3,808 +$111 +3%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,922 −$13 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 28 $780 +$203 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $6,505 −$136 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 28 $956 +$171 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $860 +$135 +16%
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $361 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $230 −$63 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 10 $390 −$390 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 09 $33,358 +$13,942 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 26 $264 +$29 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 14 $3,746 +$13 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 08 $815 +$16 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $6,097 +$3,454 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 06 $2,256 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 05 $4,860 −$15 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 02 $1,640 +$140 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 01 $2,940 +$660 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,526 +$247 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $5,577 +$649 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,872 +$30 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Mar 31 $1,273 +$255 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Mar 28 $1,034 +$49 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Mar 28 $3,978 +$203 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 28 $4,912 +$909 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $3,035 −$282 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 23 $3,665 +$27 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Mar 20 $720 −$30 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 20 $1,489 +$371 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 20 $4,370 +$2,525 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 20 $1,888 +$90 +5%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Mar 15 $139 +$6 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 03 $129 +$15 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $781 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,074 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $30,091 +$1,844 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $47,106 +$3,323 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $220 17m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $5 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $453 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $129 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $8 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $21 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $23 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $48 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $42 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $25 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $47 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $24 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $25 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $15 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $35 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $29 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $59 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $33 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $30 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $7 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $9 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $12 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $17 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $19 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $13 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,831.74 · official $38,831.08 (match) · 2591 history records