Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2ca…d984 sports 1361 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,936 (+4%) realized +$7,919 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%691W / 637L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1,556est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days+$135
14 days+$2,772
30 days+$5,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10,094
other 0% −$312
world 0% +$14
crypto 0% −$13
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 53% -8.5%
≤30d 276 +8.9% -1.5% 52% 51% +1.4%
≤90d 663 +3.4% -6.4% 52% 52% -4.2%
all 1328 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 52% -5.3%
10% -16.7% 52% -14.3%
15% -24.7% 51% -22.6%
20% -32.1% 50% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$141 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$1,567
Realized+$7,919
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses691 / 637
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,556
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1328 / 1361
History coverage195d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 40¢ $500 $385 −$115 (-23%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 68¢ $200 $297 +$97 (+49%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 45¢ 46¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 32¢ 45¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Under 38¢ 37¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $506 +$339 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) Jun 16 $101 +$82 +81%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $812 −$800 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $506 +$371 +73%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $101 +$95 +94%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $405 +$323 +80%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $102 +$184 +180%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $102 +$231 +226%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $101 +$88 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $253 +$210 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $102 +$210 +206%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $203 +$189 +93%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $102 +$192 +188%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $101 −$10 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $152 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $102 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 54¢ $101 15h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 24h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $102 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 33h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $101 36h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $101 36h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $101 36h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 36h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $203 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $507 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $812 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $103 2d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 28¢ $31 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $304 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $305 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $305 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $101 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $102 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 57¢ $506 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $507 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,567.22 · official $1,532.49 · 2179 history records