Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb2c4…97e3 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+22%) realized +$145 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$148
other 18% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 56% +13.3%
≤30d 16 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 56% +13.3%
≤90d 16 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 56% +13.3%
all 16 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 56% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 56% +13.3%
10% +13.0% 50% +2.5%
15% +2.1% 44% -7.4%
20% -7.9% 44% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 60¢ $98 $85 −$13 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 +$44 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$27 -51%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $17 −$2 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $59 +$41 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +95%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 −$9 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$10 +19%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $26 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $66 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $53 17h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $15 18h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $17 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $0 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $9 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $19 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $54 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $64 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $33 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.70 · official $84.70 (match) · 43 history records