Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb2bf…04d7 sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$21,482 (+24%) realized +$21,494 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%68W / 56L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$699per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$632est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,423
7 days+$17,988
14 days+$22,275
30 days+$20,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$2,617
other 38% +$8,081
world 8% +$6,171
finance 7% +$198
crypto 4% +$3,419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +41.4% +27.9% 65% 59% +26.1%
≤30d 124 +24.2% +12.4% 55% 54% +13.1%
≤90d 124 +24.2% +12.4% 55% 54% +13.1%
all 124 +24.2% +12.4% 55% 54% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 54% +13.1%
10% +1.6% 54% +2.2%
15% ← realistic here -8.2% 53% -7.6%
20% -17.2% 51% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$631) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$754 vs −$550 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized+$21,494
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses68 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$632
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage16d
Avg bet$699
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $884 $874 −$10 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,472 −$3,627 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,227 −$4,596 -88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,903 +$6,138 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $563 +$1,094 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,764 +$8,414 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,956 +$3,419 +86%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,121 −$1,104 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,128 +$2,604 +122%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,451 +$612 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,538 −$475 -31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,998 +$198 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $68 +$33 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,586 +$5,492 +346%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,759 +$3,028 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,362 −$1,343 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,929 −$1,903 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $239 −$106 -44%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $128 +$86 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $118 +$292 +248%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $337 +$452 +134%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $68 +$68 +101%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $35 −$34 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $126 −$124 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $90 −$89 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1,356 −$1,354 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $576 −$570 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $175 +$204 +116%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $771 +$778 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $310 +$256 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,723 −$797 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $167 +$165 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $222 +$289 +130%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $675 +$617 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $264 +$313 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $259 +$317 +122%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 06 $32 +$50 +156%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $159 +$161 +101%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $602 +$659 +110%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 06 $131 +$117 +90%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 05 $240 −$236 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $28 −$27 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $1,860 −$1,834 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 05 $12 −$12 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $39 +$50 +129%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $335 −$330 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $11 3m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $4 4m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 4m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $33 6m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 8m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $53 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $4 13m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $6 14m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $15 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $6 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 21m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $9 22m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $18 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $8 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $22 29m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 30m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $48 30m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $8 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $71 36m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $18 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $3 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $4 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $50 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $3 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $3 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $3 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,044.48 · official $1,044.48 (match) · 1311 history records