Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2ba…e778 crypto 1348 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (262 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,680 (+9%) realized +$1,675 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%749W / 819L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day262.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (262 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1384 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 44% -13.7%
≤30d 1568 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 45% -12.3%
≤90d 1568 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 45% -12.3%
all 1568 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 45% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover262.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 45% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 42% -20.7%
15% -31.9% 39% -28.3%
20% -38.6% 33% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1,675
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses749 / 819
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1568 / 1348
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day262.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 62¢ 96¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $12.01 · 3500 history records