Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2b8…7756 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-30%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -36.1% -42.2% 39% 39% -42.1%
≤30d 39 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 33% -41.3%
≤90d 39 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 33% -41.3%
all 39 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 33% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 33% -41.3%
10% -43.3% 23% -46.9%
15% -48.8% 15% -52.0%
20% -53.8% 15% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 62¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2PM ET May 31 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $2 +$5 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 20 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 20 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.80 (match) · 104 history records