Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb2b7…da78 crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$284 (-3%) realized −$285 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$43
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 41% -12.5%
≤30d 189 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 46% -11.4%
≤90d 255 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 35% -12.9%
all 267 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 34% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 34% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 21% -21.3%
15% -29.7% 14% -28.9%
20% -36.6% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 89¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.21 · official $4.25 · 3481 history records