Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb2b6…aceb
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
8.5score
+$235 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$285 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$562
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage43d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 7 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $204 $198 −$6 (-3%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 97¢ 94¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 49¢ 25¢ $49 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 70¢ 52¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Hall 41¢ 20¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $25 $0 -2%
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez May 03 $541 +$99 +18%
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani May 03 $673 +$141 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$226
other 20% +$8
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 70¢ $25 2h
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 80¢ $25 2h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 97¢ $200 2h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 41¢ $10 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $207 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 2d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr SELL No 100¢ $147 40d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 41¢ $24 41d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 41d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 89¢ $44 41d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 89¢ $44 41d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 80¢ $101 41d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 41d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 84¢ $100 41d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 85¢ $8 42d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 85¢ $20 42d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 85¢ $20 42d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 85¢ $122 42d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr BUY No 60¢ $28 42d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr BUY No 72¢ $39 42d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 85¢ $251 42d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr BUY No 72¢ $4 42d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr BUY No 72¢ $29 42d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 81¢ $503 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +20.9% +9.4% 75% 75% +9.8%
all 4 +20.9% +9.4% 75% 75% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 75% +9.8%
10% -1.1% 25% -0.8%
15% -10.7% 25% -10.3%
20% -19.4% 0% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.19 · official $562.19 (match) · 28 history records