Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2b5…28ae other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$134 (+9%) realized +$137 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$223
sports 4% +$25
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 44% +6.7%
≤30d 25 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 44% +6.7%
≤90d 25 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 44% +6.7%
all 25 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 44% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 44% +6.7%
10% -16.5% 36% -3.5%
15% -24.6% 36% -12.8%
20% -32.0% 36% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$3 · ×8.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.48 per $1 lost it wins $6.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $13 +$18 +137%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $652 +$74 +11%
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$40 +198%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$3 -26%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 +$10 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $527 +$111 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -36%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20 Jun 25 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 43¢ $5 37m
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 28¢ $5 37m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 40m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? SELL No 100¢ $726 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY No 89¢ $652 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL 37¢ $7 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $7 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 49¢ $10 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 24¢ $10 8h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 24h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 24h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $626 24h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $499 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.46 · official $37.23 · 65 history records