Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb2b1…1f32 crypto 1547 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-9%) realized −$377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%467W / 1183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days−$360
14 days−$316
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$138
sports 3% −$40
weather 2% +$2
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -94.0% -94.6% 4% 1% -89.6%
≤30d 187 -52.9% -57.4% 19% 17% -70.7%
≤90d 1650 -6.0% -15.0% 28% 27% -20.7%
all 1650 -6.0% -15.0% 28% 27% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 27% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 26% -28.3%
15% -30.5% 26% -35.2%
20% -37.3% 25% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses467 / 1183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1650 / 1547
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 91¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Alba Berlin vs. AEK Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Valencia Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Admiral Vladivostok Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - Aorus League LATAM P Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.82 · official $10.82 (match) · 3500 history records