Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2af…e4ff politics 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$3
world 26% +$1
other 25% +$9
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 57 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 2% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage278d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $20 +$13 +61%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 04 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 04 $2 $0 +22%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $34 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $34 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 27 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $3 $0 +6%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $32 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 16h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $18 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $14 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $4 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.90 · official $31.90 (match) · 185 history records