Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2ad…22a2 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 24% +$2
politics 12% +$1
finance 9% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -0.7% -10.2% 49% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage470d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $27 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $64 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 27 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on March 20? Mar 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 3h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $11 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $25 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $36 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $35 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 89¢ $34 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $34 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $34 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $31 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $31 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $19 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $19 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records