Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2ab…534d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$143 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$188
other 35% −$51
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤30d 3 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 3 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
all 3 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% -18.1%
10% -23.9% 33% -25.9%
15% -31.3% 33% -33.1%
20% -38.0% 33% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$126 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $859 −$188 -22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $84 −$63 -75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $189 +$144 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $112 49m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $113 50m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 50m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 53m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $84 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $200 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 3h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $96 5h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $96 5h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $97 6h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $97 6h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $177 7h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $177 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $189 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $190 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $385 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 18 history records