Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a8…c5b9 weather 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$542 (+3%) realized +$542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%132W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$249
14 days+$252
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$398
crypto 1% −$19
world 0% −$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +22.0% +10.3% 61% 39% +4.5%
≤30d 62 +1.2% -8.4% 55% 37% -11.3%
≤90d 148 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 38% -7.4%
all 245 -18.8% -26.5% 54% 34% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 34% -7.7%
10% -33.5% 20% -16.5%
15% -40.0% 13% -24.6%
20% -45.8% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses132 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $118 +$22 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $61 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $166 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$108 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $260 +$17 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 22 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$49 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $69 −$67 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $133 +$20 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 +$63 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$90 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $171 −$17 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $64 +$76 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$79 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $362 +$46 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 +$65 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 07 $419 −$419 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $38 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $68 +$28 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $44 −$40 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $87 −$51 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $568 +$255 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $41 −$37 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $240 +$78 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $64 +$26 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 03 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $217 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $295 +$67 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $233 +$33 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $93 +$223 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $206 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $74 −$47 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $266 +$156 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $168 +$12 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $46 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $181 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 79¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 70¢ $47 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $111 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 87¢ $56 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $277 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $86 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $174 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1330 history records