Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2a6…7708 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,545 (+68%) realized +$1,583 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$1,146
14 days+$1,148
30 days+$1,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,105
other 46% +$45
crypto 4% $0
world 2% −$39
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +64.8% +49.1% 36% 34% +51.0%
≤30d 51 +64.3% +48.7% 37% 35% +50.9%
≤90d 51 +64.3% +48.7% 37% 35% +50.9%
all 51 +64.3% +48.7% 37% 35% +50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.7% 35% +50.9%
10% +34.4% 33% +36.4%
15% +21.4% 33% +23.3%
20% +9.5% 31% +11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$24 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$1,583
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $29 $3 −$26 (-90%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 +$228 +316%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$131 +123%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 +$238 +193%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$88 +58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +106%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$10 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +164%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +116%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $357 +$768 +215%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$54 +116%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$31 +298%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 +$8 +162%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$5 -30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $44 +$205 +469%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 16m
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 34m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 35¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $18 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $63 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $35 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $112 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $130 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $176 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.96 · official $291.96 (match) · 138 history records