Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a5…3241 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+2%) realized +$102 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days−$321
14 days−$321
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$101
sports 33% −$454
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 38% -18.1%
≤30d 63 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 38% -18.1%
≤90d 63 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 38% -18.1%
all 63 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 38% -18.1%
10% -29.4% 33% -26.0%
15% -36.3% 32% -33.1%
20% -42.5% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 74
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $448 $424 −$24 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $514 −$504 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 −$23 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $501 +$44 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $452 +$67 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $411 +$40 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $96 −$55 -57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $671 +$41 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$6 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 −$3 -12%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$19 +364%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$7 +8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $66 +$88 +133%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 −$36 -38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $13 −$7 -51%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $1 +$3 +284%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $2 +$1 +66%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +151%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $400 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $514 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 98¢ $546 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $519 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $20 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $452 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $401 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $41 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $50 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $712 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $290 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $180 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 31h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.86 · official $443.86 · 172 history records