Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a4…04e0 other 62 markets active 6d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$195 (-6%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate53%33W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$90
other 32% −$118
crypto 5% −$3
economics 2% −$55
finance 2% +$75
tech 2% −$7
politics 2% −$5
weather 1% −$17
world 1% +$4
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 6% -12.4%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 6% -12.4%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 6% -12.4%
all 62 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 23% -15.0%
10% -24.6% 11% -23.2%
15% -31.9% 6% -30.6%
20% -38.6% 5% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses33 / 29
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage134d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $170 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $357 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $814 +$56 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $75 +$2 +2%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $418 −$171 -41%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $50 +$4 +7%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $75 +$10 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $30 +$2 +6%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $50 −$1 -3%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $148 +$5 +3%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 02 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13 Feb 02 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 2? Feb 02 $16 −$11 -69%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 02 $14 −$1 -6%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 01 $20 $0 -2%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 01 $29 +$4 +12%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Feb 01 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on Februa Feb 01 $9 −$9 -100%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 01 $15 −$3 -21%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 01 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Jan 31 $9 +$4 +42%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 31 $6 $0 +1%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Jan 31 $20 −$2 -12%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Jan 31 $22 −$6 -25%
Will Trump say "Too late" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 31 $9 +$3 +33%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Jan 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jan 30 $22 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 30 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 30 $20 −$14 -68%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? Jan 30 $10 −$4 -44%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 30 $2 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $30 $0 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Jan 30 $11 $0 -3%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 5? Jan 30 $17 −$5 -31%
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? Jan 30 $45 −$8 -17%
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m? Jan 30 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 98¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Costa Rica? SELL No 100¢ $172 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $129 6d
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $129 6d
Exact Score: Bolivia 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Nigeria? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? SELL No 100¢ $359 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $170 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $57 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $300 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $435 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $101 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $152 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 46¢ $106 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 49¢ $244 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $47 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 37¢ $51 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 67¢ $101 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $95 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 68¢ $84 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 35¢ $84 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 64¢ $10 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $9 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 58¢ $29 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $29 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $9 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $10 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 66¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records