trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 87¢ | $1,715,910 | $1,720,038 | +$4,128 (+0%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 64¢ | $53,166 | $64,186 | +$11,020 (+21%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 56¢ | $33,448 | $52,607 | +$19,159 (+57%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10,000 | $10,700 | +$700 (+7%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $9,999 | $10,021 | +$22 (+0%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $10,000 | $9,537 | −$463 (-5%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10,000 | $9,318 | −$681 (-7%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $9,999 | $9,211 | −$789 (-8%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $9,999 | $8,738 | −$1,261 (-13%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $9,999 | $8,636 | −$1,363 (-14%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $9,999 | $6,247 | −$3,752 (-38%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1,211,784 | +$146,249 | +12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $3,277,414 | +$929,293 | +28% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $702,064 | +$177,474 | +25% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $406,560 | +$24,652 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 01 | $63,060 | +$11,640 | +18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 23 | $490,961 | +$99,596 | +20% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Mar 16 | $34,275 | +$14,782 | +43% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 15 | $151,558 | +$16,176 | +11% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 15 | $197,540 | +$11,911 | +6% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Mar 15 | $41,079 | +$8,175 | +20% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Mar 14 | $19,275 | +$1,684 | +9% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Mar 13 | $51,302 | +$2,337 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +12.1% | +1.4% | 100% | 100% | +1.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +17.9% | +6.7% | 100% | 75% | +11.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +18.1% | +6.8% | 100% | 73% | +10.3% |
| all | 12 | +17.0% | +5.8% | 100% | 67% | +10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +5.8% | 67% | +10.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -4.3% | 25% | -0.4% |
| 15% | -13.6% | 8% | -10.0% |
| 20% | -22.0% | 0% | -18.9% |