Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a3…09b8 sports 828 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$479 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%582W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$138
14 days−$154
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$232
crypto 18% −$193
other 10% +$8
world 2% −$38
politics 1% −$16
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -11.2% -19.6% 67% 29% -14.2%
≤30d 515 -8.0% -16.8% 70% 28% -15.4%
≤90d 823 -6.8% -15.6% 71% 29% -12.0%
all 823 -6.8% -15.6% 71% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 29% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 12% -20.4%
15% -31.1% 7% -28.1%
20% -37.8% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$479
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses582 / 241
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions4
Markets (closed)823 / 828
History coverage62d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$9 +54%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$15 +70%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$18 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $31 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$3 +14%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$15 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +82%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $27 −$8 -28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner SELL Marsborne 100¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 64¢ $17 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $37 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 58¢ $22 3h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $3 3h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3h
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 88¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL No 49¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 90¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $18 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 4h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 93¢ $3 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 8¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $48.23 (match) · 3500 history records