Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2a3…4b99 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-17%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$63
politics 25% −$40
world 4% $0
other 2% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.2% -4.0% 100% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 4 +6.2% -4.0% 100% 25% -3.9%
≤90d 4 +6.2% -4.0% 100% 25% -3.9%
all 36 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 44% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -23.7%
10% -24.4% 28% -31.0%
15% -31.7% 19% -37.7%
20% -38.4% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage138d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 09 $10 +$25 +247%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 02 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 02 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Japan Innovation Party win between 30 and 34 seats in the 202 Feb 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 125 and 149 seats in the Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $10 +$13 +133%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 50 and 74 seats in the 2 Feb 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Ja Feb 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Ja Feb 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 J Feb 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 09 $10 +$6 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 08 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 07 $20 −$15 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? SELL No 50¢ $20 110d
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? BUY No 50¢ $10 110d
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? BUY No 51¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 110d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 132d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Ja BUY Yes 98¢ $10 133d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 133d
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 133d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 133d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 133d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records