Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a3…79e0 tech 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-14%) realized −$48 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$121
14 days−$60
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$68
tech 26% −$66
crypto 14% +$40
other 12% −$2
finance 4% −$16
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.8% -32.8% 35% 30% -68.9%
≤30d 39 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 33% -20.0%
≤90d 39 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 33% -20.0%
all 39 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 33% -20.0%
10% -21.8% 26% -27.7%
15% -29.4% 18% -34.7%
20% -36.3% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Open positions42
Markets (closed)39 / 81
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $51 $20 −$31 (-61%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 65¢ 82¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 40¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+130%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 49¢ 28¢ $13 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 45¢ 70¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+54%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 27¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 68¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 15¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +144%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 16 $8 −$1 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -50%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 16 $9 +$2 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +195%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +150%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $17 −$6 -36%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +32%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $10 +$28 +273%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $20 −$9 -45%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +18%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +24%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $19 −$9 -47%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $21 $0 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 02 $38 +$2 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $95 +$45 +48%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $6 +$7 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL Yes 38¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $11 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 31¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 27h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $1 47h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.50 · official $220.50 (match) · 275 history records