Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb29f…45b5 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,213 (+6%) realized +$15,889 · open −$8,676
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,430per market
Trades / day98.9pace
Fees−$1,490est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$21,224
other 19% −$23,594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 18 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 18 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
all 18 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 50% -4.5%
10% -24.8% 50% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -32.0% 44% -22.0%
20% -38.7% 39% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$9,490) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,968 vs −$5,268 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$15,889
Unrealized−$8,676
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,490
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6,430
Trades / day98.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $8,684 $8 −$8,676 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $5,584 +$5,691 +102%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $7,218 +$2,387 +33%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $9,490 +$7,912 +83%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $10,702 +$4,317 +40%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $2,680 −$2,640 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $3,004 −$2,997 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $9,102 +$11,710 +129%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 27 $5,954 −$5,954 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4,917 −$4,917 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 27 $261 +$213 +82%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $8,540 +$7,044 +82%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $9,998 +$8,512 +85%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $10,011 −$10,011 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10,001 −$10,001 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $2,890 −$2,890 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $5,000 +$5,930 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $897 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $7,912 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 40¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 40¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 40¢ $94 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $172 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 49¢ $50 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 49¢ $2,935 7h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $15,983 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $3,086 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $10 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $20 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $767 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $47 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 65¢ $112 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $35 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 65¢ $1,176 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 65¢ $16 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $16 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $324 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $122 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $189 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $69 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $75 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $75 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $47 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $37 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 80¢ $1,271 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 439 history records