Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb29c…0e80 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+4%) realized +$53 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$28
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$48
tech 12% +$17
world 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.7% -26.5% 78% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 77% 9% -6.4%
≤90d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 77% 9% -6.4%
all 22 -5.5% -14.5% 77% 9% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 9% -6.4%
10% -22.7% 5% -15.3%
15% -30.1% 5% -23.5%
20% -37.0% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.59 per $1 lost it wins $14.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage14d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 93¢ 93¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $120 +$2 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $110 +$11 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$11 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $126 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $124 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $120 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $120 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $110 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $105 4d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL PortlandFire 0¢ $0 5d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 4¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $90 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $90 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $90 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $90 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 7¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 90¢ $47 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $93 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL No 24¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No 23¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 72¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 21¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 26¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.46 · official $361.46 (match) · 51 history records