Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb29c…8aca sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,571 (+2%) realized +$3,400 · open +$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate82%168W / 38L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,066per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$505
7 days+$742
14 days+$1,722
30 days+$2,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$2,464
finance 23% +$788
world 6% −$226
other 6% +$228
crypto 5% +$39
politics 2% −$2
tech 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 22% -7.7%
≤30d 166 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 17% -8.0%
≤90d 206 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 15% -8.2%
all 206 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 15% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 15% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 6% -17.0%
15% -26.4% 4% -25.0%
20% -33.6% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,296) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$10,560
Realized+$3,400
Unrealized+$171
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses168 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions6
Markets (closed)206 / 212
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,066
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,061 +$61 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,008 +$8 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,955 $1,991 +$36 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1,820 $1,810 −$10 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,694 $1,695 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $920 $994 +$74 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 +$40 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $502 +$67 +13%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $74 +$26 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,154 +$12 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $293 −$37 -13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,127 +$73 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $843 +$157 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,154 +$86 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,258 +$58 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $854 −$104 -12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $933 −$44 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,879 +$121 +6%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $36 +$2 +4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,864 +$136 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $3,964 +$32 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,900 +$100 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $2,965 +$16 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,938 +$52 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $942 −$133 -14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $844 −$261 -31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $86 −$20 -23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,805 +$195 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $68 −$32 -47%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,013 +$9 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$76 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $268 −$205 -76%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $1,859 +$69 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $84 −$72 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $201 +$27 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $917 +$83 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $456 +$44 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $967 +$24 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $912 +$88 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 11 $399 −$19 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $931 +$69 +7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,614 +$15 +1%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $970 +$30 +3%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $870 +$29 +3%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $961 +$38 +4%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,456 +$44 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $186 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,509 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $910 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $7 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $3 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $79 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $105 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $49 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $78 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $10 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $3 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $373 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $502 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $45 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $153 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,900 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $90 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $9 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $7 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $26 27h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Jordan 99¢ $99 27h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $9 28h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $82 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $122 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,559.99 · official $10,560.00 (match) · 965 history records