Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb296…0a46 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$701 (+13%) realized +$699 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days+$830
14 days+$830
30 days+$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$459
sports 4% +$240
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +15.6% +4.6% 79% 51% +5.7%
≤30d 47 +15.6% +4.6% 79% 51% +5.7%
≤90d 47 +15.6% +4.6% 79% 51% +5.7%
all 50 +11.2% +0.6% 76% 50% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% +2.9%
10% -9.0% 36% -6.9%
15% -17.8% 20% -15.9%
20% -25.9% 16% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$68 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$699
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage369d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 91¢ 92¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$93 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$83 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$85 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$60 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$309 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$2 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$374 +365%
UFC 317: Price vs. Smith Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Karen Read guilty in officer's death? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $9 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.23 · official $193.49 · 139 history records