Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb28e…e6f0 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$82 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$61
crypto 14% −$20
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+59%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 66¢ $10 $47 +$37 (+368%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.63 · official $132.48 · 11 history records