Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb28b…1751 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-8%) realized −$5 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$33
crypto 15% −$14
sports 9% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.0% -46.6% 23% 15% -19.0%
≤30d 13 -41.0% -46.6% 23% 15% -19.0%
≤90d 27 -35.3% -41.5% 30% 22% -22.3%
all 27 -35.3% -41.5% 30% 22% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 22% -22.3%
10% -47.1% 22% -29.7%
15% -52.2% 22% -36.5%
20% -56.9% 19% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage87d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $43 $34 −$9 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$15 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Multan Sultans Apr 05 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $44 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 51¢ $5 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.00 · official $34.00 (match) · 61 history records