Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb28b…3d9b crypto 1228 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,677 (-10%) realized −$2,677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate59%737W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,147
7 days−$1,147
14 days−$1,381
30 days−$1,727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,702
sports 3% −$215
other 3% +$169
politics 1% −$153
world 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -71.8% -74.5% 17% 7% -71.3%
≤30d 432 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 40% -22.9%
≤90d 1257 -9.0% -17.7% 59% 42% -20.2%
all 1257 -9.0% -17.7% 59% 42% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 42% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 26% -27.8%
15% -32.8% 16% -34.8%
20% -39.3% 10% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses737 / 520
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1257 / 1228
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1257 Trades
no open positions (277 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$18 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$51 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$45 -173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Jun 18 $5 −$7 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$35 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$12 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $108 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$27 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$27 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$14 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $130 −$75 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $79 −$40 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $23 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records