Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb289…f2fc crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,071 (-10%) realized −$1,071 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$321
14 days+$321
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$338
sports 30% −$274
world 15% −$958
crypto 9% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 1 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤90d 18 -7.0% -15.9% 72% 22% -16.7%
all 18 -7.0% -15.9% 72% 22% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 22% -16.7%
10% -23.9% 17% -24.7%
15% -31.3% 11% -31.9%
20% -38.0% 6% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$262 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,071
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage79d
Avg bet$614
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,065 +$321 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 22 $119 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 22 $104 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 21 $96 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 21 $91 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 21 $88 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 21 $82 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 21 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 21 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $45 +$17 +38%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $639 −$208 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 08 $47 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 08 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $3,335 −$274 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $980 −$750 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,821 31m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,552 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $2,564 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,495 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $76 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $119 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $104 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $96 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $91 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $88 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $82 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 60d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $61 60d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $91 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $11 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $61 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 61¢ $3,061 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 66¢ $3,335 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 6¢ $134 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records