Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb285…bc50 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$442 (+7%) realized +$460 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$66
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$69
economics 25% +$229
politics 22% +$184
other 9% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 33% -11.7%
≤90d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 33% -11.7%
all 8 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 50% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 50% -4.3%
10% -18.1% 25% -13.4%
15% -26.1% 12% -21.8%
20% -33.3% 12% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$141 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized+$460
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage404d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,040 +$286 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,573 −$353 -22%
Will Julian Champagnie score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Spurs lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 06 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $71 −$70 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 27 $101 +$69 +68%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $1,601 +$229 +14%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $1,417 +$184 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $532 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $322 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $101 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $86 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $54 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $133 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $106 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $52 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $52 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 62¢ $85 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.59 · official $541.59 (match) · 90 history records