Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb285…68d3 crypto 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72,989 (-22%) realized −$71,577 · open −$1,412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%281W / 149L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89,284
7 days−$86,552
14 days−$85,381
30 days−$80,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$4,278
other 31% −$67,927
sports 12% −$3,003
politics 8% −$189
world 6% +$429
tech 1% −$118
economics 0% −$99
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 31% -68.4%
≤30d 331 -11.8% -20.2% 61% 42% -49.2%
≤90d 407 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 43% -35.0%
all 430 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 43% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 43% -30.4%
10% -23.5% 30% -37.1%
15% -30.9% 20% -43.2%
20% -37.6% 14% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$674 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$17,638
Realized−$71,577
Unrealized−$1,412
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses281 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions14
Markets (closed)430 / 445
History coverage238d
Avg bet$760
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $5,000 $5,056 +$56 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $3,500 $3,543 +$43 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 82¢ $3,704 $3,274 −$430 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 25¢ $3,422 $2,374 −$1,049 (-31%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 88¢ $2,000 $1,902 −$98 (-5%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 89¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 70¢ 78¢ $300 $332 +$32 (+11%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 83¢ 90¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 78¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 48¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 69¢ 64¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $34 $18 −$16 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $921 +$226 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $608 −$17 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $305 −$63 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$61 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $617 +$399 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $314 +$157 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$26 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $336 +$64 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $140 +$60 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $114 +$86 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $261 +$39 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $246 +$54 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $503 +$47 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$75 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $306 +$134 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $584 +$35 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$184 +176%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $302 +$100 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$35 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$29 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 10m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 70¢ $303 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $302 36m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $101 36m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $91 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $717 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $617 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,637.60 · official $17,633.31 (match) · 1952 history records