Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B2 0xb282…cde9 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$304 (+207%) realized +$318 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +295% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +230% what you keep after slip
Net edge+230%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$229
sports 8% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+257.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +294.9% +257.3% 80% 80% +240.4%
≤30d 5 +294.9% +257.3% 80% 80% +240.4%
≤90d 5 +294.9% +257.3% 80% 80% +240.4%
all 5 +294.9% +257.3% 80% 80% +240.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +257.3% 80% +240.4%
10% +223.1% 80% +207.8%
15% +191.9% 80% +178.0%
20% +163.3% 80% +150.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +276% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +295% · $-wt +276% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$25 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.23 per $1 lost it wins $14.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 21 $26 −$25 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $7 +$15 +213%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$42 +163%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$91 +784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$212 +413%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $22 14m
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $7 18m
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $26 2h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.02 · official $11.03 (match) · 11 history records