Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb281…401e politics 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 15% $0
crypto 9% +$3
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 0% -9.4%
all 59 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage309d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high before 2026? Aug 24 $48 +$4 +7%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Aug 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $13 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $17 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.95 · official $26.95 (match) · 157 history records