Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb27f…2c41 sports 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,065 (-2%) realized −$4,293 · open +$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%128W / 160L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$853per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$569est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,466
7 days+$2,710
14 days+$125
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$12,378
other 36% +$7,581
world 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -34.1% -40.3% 25% 25% -1.9%
≤30d 170 -8.2% -17.0% 41% 39% -8.3%
≤90d 170 -8.2% -17.0% 41% 39% -8.3%
all 288 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 43% -10.9%
10% -23.4% 41% -19.4%
15% -30.8% 36% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$313 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$725
Realized−$4,293
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses128 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$569
Open positions7
Markets (closed)288 / 296
History coverage164d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $270 $500 +$230 (+85%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 55¢ $70 $61 −$8 (-12%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 48¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 74¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+29%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 30¢ $29 $17 −$12 (-41%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $590 −$203 -34%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $97 +$46 +48%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $178 −$30 -17%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $80 −$72 -90%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $295 −$163 -55%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $194 +$166 +85%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $141 −$139 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $84 +$116 +138%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 27 $74 −$52 -70%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $142 −$74 -52%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $247 −$244 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $288 +$88 +31%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $40 −$24 -61%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) Jun 27 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $274 +$226 +83%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $492 −$11 -2%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $47 −$8 -16%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $12,095 +$2,317 +19%
Deniz Undav: 3+ shots Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $103 −$22 -21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $895 −$880 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $608 −$518 -85%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $294 −$184 -62%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $507 −$500 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $531 −$125 -24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $311 −$307 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $55 +$104 +189%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $566 −$75 -13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $500 +$500 +100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $92 +$108 +117%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,657 +$4,603 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $6,958 −$1,168 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9,375 +$2,977 +32%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $2,940 −$2,940 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,161 −$882 -41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $75 −$74 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $637 −$364 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $274 45m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $0 49m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $467 52m
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 52m
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $6 53m
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $38 53m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $274 54m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $114 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $123 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $132 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $143 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $147 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $72 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $82 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $43 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 42¢ $103 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $80 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $141 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $97 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $107 3h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S SELL Keyd 15¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Keyd 49¢ $64 5h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Keyd 49¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Keyd 49¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 51¢ $102 5h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 51¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.38 · official $725.11 (match) · 1083 history records