Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb27e…4b74 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$5
sports 33% +$106
crypto 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.6% +37.2% 40% 40% +37.2%
≤30d 5 +51.6% +37.2% 40% 40% +37.2%
≤90d 5 +51.6% +37.2% 40% 40% +37.2%
all 5 +51.6% +37.2% 40% 40% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.2% 40% +37.2%
10% +24.1% 40% +24.0%
15% +12.1% 40% +12.1%
20% +1.1% 40% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$7 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.88 per $1 lost it wins $4.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 19¢ 70¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+271%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$58 +282%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $60 +$48 +80%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $14 −$10 -74%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $48 −$9 -18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 24m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $79 37m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $92 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.50 · official $88.50 (match) · 22 history records