Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb276…8720 other 10 markets active 14h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,841 (+34%) realized +$1,841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,532
sports 43% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.3%
≤30d 10 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.3%
≤90d 10 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.3%
all 10 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 70% +19.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.0% 70% +7.9%
15% -0.6% 70% -2.5%
20% -10.4% 50% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$550 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $514 +$677 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $511 +$351 +69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $358 −$350 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $567 −$550 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $770 −$750 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $515 +$846 +164%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $743 +$414 +56%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $474 +$651 +137%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $510 +$215 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $510 +$225 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $514 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 11¢ $52 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $258 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,361 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $255 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $511 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $515 14h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $516 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $512 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,157 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $234 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $509 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $474 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $510 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $510 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records