Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb275…28b1 crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,289 (-1%) realized −$2,261 · open +$972
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%98W / 165L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$790
14 days−$659
30 days−$2,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$133
finance 11% −$2,959
other 10% +$507
economics 0% −$10
sports 0% −$27
politics 0% −$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.9% -54.7% 25% 25% +68.8%
≤30d 9 -47.6% -52.6% 33% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 49 -53.6% -58.0% 24% 16% -53.3%
all 263 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -11.1%
10% -27.9% 30% -19.6%
15% -34.9% 29% -27.4%
20% -41.3% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$67 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$3,037
Realized−$2,261
Unrealized+$972
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses98 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)263 / 267
History coverage590d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 34¢ 99¢ $772 $2,235 +$1,463 (+189%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 45¢ 27¢ $1,109 $653 −$456 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 26¢ $182 $146 −$37 (-20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 49¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $2,151 −$1,660 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $870 +$874 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $280 +$131 +47%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$99 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 02 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $239 +$59 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 28 $311 −$200 -64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 04 $198 −$195 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $135 −$72 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 3? May 03 $10 +$15 +148%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30? May 01 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 3? May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 30 $105 −$101 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $187 −$75 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $167 +$119 +71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $31 −$23 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 23 $141 −$141 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 13 $500 −$491 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 12 $186 +$8 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 11 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 09 $266 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10PM ET Apr 09 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027? Apr 09 $1,153 −$35 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 12PM ET Apr 09 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11PM ET Apr 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8PM ET Apr 09 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11AM ET Apr 09 $74 −$74 -100%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 09 $273 −$30 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7AM ET Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $240 +$67 +28%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 31 $130 −$121 -93%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 30 $568 −$154 -27%
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $26 44m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $26 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $26 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 22¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 22¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 22¢ $36 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $9 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $22 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $2 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $2 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $2 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $18 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $6 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $30 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $20 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 30¢ $203 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,036.67 · official $3,036.67 (match) · 1630 history records