Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb272…5030 sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (366 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$53,240 (+16%) realized +$38,779 · open +$14,461
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$5,449per market
Trades / day366.1pace
Fees−$3,459est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$44,699
other 29% +$25,983
crypto 3% +$9,500
world 3% −$9,998
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (366 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +18.7% +7.4% 60% 55% +7.0%
≤30d 55 +18.7% +7.4% 60% 55% +7.0%
≤90d 55 +18.7% +7.4% 60% 55% +7.0%
all 55 +18.7% +7.4% 60% 55% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover366.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 55% +7.0%
10% -2.9% 53% -3.3%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 49% -12.6%
20% -20.9% 45% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$6,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,773 vs −$4,627 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$41,025
Realized+$38,779
Unrealized+$14,461
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$3,459
Open positions6
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5,449
Trades / day366.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $10,000 $24,987 +$14,987 (+150%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60¢ 55¢ $7,500 $6,812 −$688 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $4,500 $3,975 −$525 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,024 $2,350 +$326 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,800 $2,250 +$450 (+25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $740 $650 −$90 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5,700 +$4,300 +75%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5,800 +$4,200 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,250 +$2,000 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $7,500 +$5,000 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4,600 +$2,500 +54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,242 −$2,242 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $7,750 +$4,750 +61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,000 +$2,500 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,500 +$5,500 +122%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5,375 −$5,375 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4,516 −$4,516 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5,550 −$5,550 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,475 −$2,475 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,001 −$9,998 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,550 +$9,450 +170%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20,100 +$9,900 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1,870 +$54 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3,231 +$2,644 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5,230 −$5,230 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9,900 +$10,100 +102%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,709 +$12,640 +145%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,900 +$3,100 +45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,500 +$9,500 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5,200 +$350 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,200 +$5,800 +138%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,000 +$4,000 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $77 +$71 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $4,900 +$5,100 +104%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,000 +$15,000 +300%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4,164 +$145 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$499 +488%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,900 +$3,210 +82%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $586 −$586 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15,100 −$4,900 -32%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $4,600 +$5,400 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2,909 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1,355 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5,000 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $735 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $27 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $7 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $0 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $4 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $110 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $300 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2,403 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $97 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $10,250 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $5,700 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $56 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $82 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $274 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $163 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $5,547 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $56 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,024.99 · official $41,024.99 (match) · 1772 history records